Kent’s Official Blog

The recent news about Jay Leno moving to 10pm is going to have major impact on the TV landscape, I think it’s a smart decision for NBC Universal but will force more talent to smaller networks, that ultimately pay less, which will drive more entry level and middleclass writers and producers to create for themselves in the online space.

So let’s first look at the move itself, Leno will take his production and move it up an hour and a half.  He real net jobs gained or lost.  Conan moves to the 1130 slot and will be taking the majority of his creative staff along with him, but will most likely hire a lot of below the line folks here in LA.  And I would imagine the bulk of his old below the line staff with stay on board with Jimmy Fallon’s new show.

All of that replaces four days of entertainment programming and one of Dateline.  So for the cost of a single new show, and a variety show at that, NBC is saving on 4 hours of much more expensive programming and an hour of Dateline.

Pretty cost effective for the network.  Now, the audience demand for those hour long shows hasn’t gone away.  If anything I’m sure it’s as strong or increasing.  But, as a major studio, it’s much cheaper for them to launch a new drama on USA, SciFi, or Bravo.  Less expensive talent contracts all the way down.  And then let the breakout hits flow up to the mothership if there’s sufficient demand and incentive.

So with more shows launching on the cable networks, more shows being hour dramas (which have smaller writing staffs than sitcoms and replace two sitcoms with each hour of programming) and reality shows (which cut out both actors and writers), there’s just less money in the system for actors and writers.  Which is going to continue to sort out with major winners and losers and no middleclass that can do well on dayplaying and being staffed.

This is going to make even more people to join the new media fray (and leave Hollywood) because they aren’t getting paid anyway, so why not have all the control and have fun.

Which is going to have major repercussions because it’s going to limit the pool of available writers and actors. Because the safety net of small jobs and consistent work is going away, finding the right person for the job, will be replaced with finding the best of who’s left. Which will continue to diminish the available pool.

This is sounding like a bummer, and it is, but I do have some faith that some unseen force will make this cycle change. Will it be the majors will actually let small production companies own their own work and license it them? Maybe, but honestly I just heard an abhorrent story of a studio at the 11th hour adding a provision in a contract that prevented both the writer and producer from working on anything else for five years. A provision that is repugnant if the show goes and inhumane if goes and gets canceled quickly. Such provisions are more about locking up talent (where the term development hell comes from) than actually producing a show. Both the writer and producer walked and the deal never happened.

My faith mainly comes from just the creative impulse. People will always seek out good shows and want to be entertained. And those shows and creators will always be scarce and valuable.

It’s just going to take a little time for everyone to figure that out.